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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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