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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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Showing 1316 to 1320 news of total 6871 |
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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