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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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Showing 1316 to 1320 news of total 6871 |
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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