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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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