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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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