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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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