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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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