We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
|
|
|
Showing 1396 to 1400 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
|
| |
| |
|
