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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SUPPORTING SULPHUR 2020 CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION - IMO
An IMO working group is meeting (9-13 July) to develop guidelines to support the consistent implementation of the 0.50% limit for the sulphur conte ...
Monday, 09 July 18
RISING COAL PRICES LIFTING AUSTRALIA'S EXPORT REVENUES BUT INVESTORS STAYING AWAY - NEWCASTLE HERALD
Newcastle coal prices have risen more than 40 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels for seven years but the industry is becoming increas ...
Saturday, 07 July 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STRUGGLED; A 57K-DWT WAS REPORTED FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA AT $12K
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, thoug ...
Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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