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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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