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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 August 18
INDO / CHINA COAL RV'S IS PAYING AROUND USD 11,000 TO SUPRAS BSS DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The counter seasonally strong market during the summer months bodes well for the remainder of the year.
According ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
JOKOWI CANCELS PLAN TO REVOKE COAL DMO - JP
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo on Tuesday has canceled the government’s plan to revoke the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coa ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The dry bulk market activity over the past four weeks has remained stable when compared to the previous months. There are concerns with regards to ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO CHANGE COAL SUPPLY, PRICING RULES UNTIL 2019 - REUTERS
Indonesia is unlikely to change its rules on domestic coal supply and pricing until 2019, Coordinating Maritime Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said on M ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
ENERGY MINISTRY REMAINS FIRM ON DMO POLICY FOR COAL - JP
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has stressed that it will not cancel its policy on the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal, as the ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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