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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 August 18
COAL PRODUCTION AT 37.11 PERCENT OF FULL-YEAR TARGET - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production was recorded at 180 million tons on Wednesday, or 37.11 percent of the government’s 485 million target this year.
...
Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed ...
Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
The Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself ...
Monday, 13 August 18
A 50,200 DWT FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $10,000S - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Expectations of a further push in the market were largely unfulfilled last week as rates come under pressure in Asia as the North Atla ...
Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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