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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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