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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
Friday, 17 August 18
MALAYSIA'S MANJUNG 4 - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
According to the IEA’s Energy Access Outlook 2017 report, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide in the last 16 years ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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