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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing da ...
Thursday, 19 July 18
VINACOMIN PRODUCES OVER 20 MLN TONNES OF RAW COAL FROM YEAR'S START - VNA
The Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) has produced over 20 million tonnes of raw coal and 19.3 million of clean coal f ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
INDONESIA TO AUCTION 16 MINING SITES - JP
Indonesia will soon auction 16 mining sites as no proposal submissions have been submitted by state-owned enterprises (BUMN) and regional administr ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
The new regulations for Chinese flag restricting import of Tier I ships have dominated market sentiment during the past days as buyers have been tr ...
Thursday, 12 July 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS BEING FIXED AROUND USD 10500 BSS SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Cape market continue to be extremely volatile says Fearnleys in its latst weekly report.
The further noted that, last week ended wi ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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