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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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