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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2 years tanker briefing in tanker asset prices
The tanker market is undoubtedly passing one of its’ roughest times over the la ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specific ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market generally drifted and by mid-week dropped to what some felt was an artificially low level, only to bounce back at the end o ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL OVERTAKES IRON ORE IN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AS AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST EXPORT FOR 2018-19 - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Coal is forecast to be Australia’s largest export earner at $58.1 billion in 2018-19 with iron ore exports forecast to earn $57.7 billion in ...
Monday, 02 July 18
THIESS SECURES NEW QCOAL NORTHERN HUB $480M CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a new A$480 million contract by QCoal to continue operations at the QCoal Northern Hub located in Queensland’s Bowen ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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