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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
A sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.179 MT OF COAL IN MAY; DOWN 14.77% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,453.6 Mi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
COAL IN THE CROSSFIRE: CHINESE TRADERS WARY OF BEING BURNT BY TRADE WAR - REUTERS
At least three U.S. coal shipments on their way to China may end up casualties of the escalating trade dispute after Beijing said it would impose s ...
Saturday, 23 June 18
COAL GROUP TARGETS 9 PER CENT REVENUE SPIKE - VIET NAM NEWS
Viet Nam News reported, the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin or TKV) is targeting VNĐ116.9 trillion (US$5.1 billion) ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
ROBUST ASIAN THERMAL COAL DEMAND CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Minerals Council of Australia reported, Australia’s world-class coal mining industry can create more jobs in Australia and strengthen t ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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