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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 June 18
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES HIT 6-YEAR HIGH AS ASIA DEMAND SPIKES - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have risen to their highest level since 2012 as hot weather across North Asia spurs buying ahead of the peak summer ...
Monday, 11 June 18
ANALYSING A NEW AGE OF AUTONOMOUS VESSELS - IMO
The International Maritime Organization answers the questions of Government Europa on how the next generation of autonomous vessels can be regulate ...
Friday, 08 June 18
AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES SURGE AS ASIA DEMAND HEATS UP - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
As observed last month the price of oil hit its highest level since November 2014 reaching $80 per barrel. Global oil demand growth for 2018 was sl ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
SOUTH KOREA'S SULPHUR CAP ALTERS ASIAN COAL MARKET DYNAMICS: RUSSELL
South Korea’s imposition of a strict sulphur cap on its imported coal is likely to cause ripples across Asia’s markets for the pollutin ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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