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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 21 June 18
CHINESE REDUCED COAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS - CAIXIN GLOBAL
Caixin Global reported that the Chinese government has reduced restrictions on coal imports at the nation’s major ports in response to concer ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADMITS COAL SHORTAGE, ASKS DISCOMS TO IMPORT - TIMES OF INDIA
Times of India reported that the power ministry has advised all state governments and private power distribution companies to import coal as Coal I ...
Tuesday, 19 June 18
WCA RESPONDS TO BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2018
Responding to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, Benjamin Sporton, Chief Executive of the World Coal Association (WCA) said, &ldqu ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 2% TO 756 MILLION SHORT TONS MMST IN 2018 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production to decline by 2% to 756 million short tons (MMst) in 2018.
According to EIA's Short-Term Ener ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2018 marks quite a few milestones for Greek Shipping. No need to detail again the greatness of Greek Shipping or the singular position that Greek s ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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