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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 June 18
THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE PROMISING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Just as we thought the world was calming back down to reason, worries and frictions regarding global trade resurfaced this past week after a series ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IS GOING UP AGAIN
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1857 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 4 June 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) up 7.91 pe ...
Saturday, 02 June 18
HOW CARBON UTILISATION WILL BE A KEY STEP IN INDIA'S CLIMATE STRATEGY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
For India, energy remains the key driver of growth, not only from an economic perspective but more importantly for accelerating social development. ...
Thursday, 31 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS GETTING FIXED AROUND $13K DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Cape market has been on a downward trend for the past week.
According to Fearnleys, Oslo based broker, Brazil market ...
Wednesday, 30 May 18
HIGH PRICE, DMO ENCOURAGE COAL MINERS TO BOOST PRODUCTION - THE JAKARTA POST
A number of coal miners are planning to increase production by 10 percent in the second half of this year after a worldwide price increase.
Th ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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