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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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