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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
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