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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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