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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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