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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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