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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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