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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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