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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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