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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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