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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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