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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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