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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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