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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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