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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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