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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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