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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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