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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 29 December 18
DELIVERY OF CARGO WITHOUT PRODUCTION OF THE ORIGINAL BILL OF LADING - TT CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
As the bill of lading is a document of title, a person presenting it to the carrier or its agent is ostensibly entitled t ...
Friday, 28 December 18
BIMCO 2020 SULPHUR CLAUSES: "A FAIR ALLOCATION OF RESPONSIBILITIES AND LIABILITIES'? - INCE & CO.
To assist owners and charterers to address the legal issues arising under any time charterparties, which will span the 1 January 2020 implementatio ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
DRY BULKERS SPOT FREIGHT MARKET W/E 21 DEC - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Capesize
A negative week for the Capesize sector, as activity remained at low levels, especially in the Pacific, with rumors regarding agreed r ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
SHIPPING IS ENTERING A NEW ERA OF EVER CHALLENGING CONDITIONS - ALLIED
As we move closer to the end of the year and we look forward into New Year, we are still finding ourselves looking deep into a market outlook full ...
Tuesday, 25 December 18
FUEL QUALITY AND SAFETY IN IMO CONVENTIONS: A GROWING CHALLENGE, EVEN PRIOR TO 1 JANUARY 2020 - IUMI
At the 100th session of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting discussions on fuel quality a ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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