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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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