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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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