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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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