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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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