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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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