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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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