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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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