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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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