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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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