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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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