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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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