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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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