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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effecti ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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