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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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