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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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